Volcanology has long struggled with a basic problem: eruptions are rare, deep underground processes are invisible, and by the time surface signals appear, it’s often too late to model what’s happening below with confidence. Researchers are now applying more rigorous, transparent physics-based forecasting methods to change that, including a real-time public forecasting experiment focused on the Axial Seamount, an active underwater volcano off the Oregon coast that has become one of the most closely monitored eruption sites in the world.
Using continuous data from an extensive undersea sensor network, scientists have identified inflation and seismicity patterns that preceded past eruptions, allowing them to issue forecasts before activity occurs — and, notably, to publish predictions that turn out wrong alongside the successes, a practice meant to make eruption forecasting a more rigorous, testable science over time. The approach won’t make eruptions fully predictable anytime soon, but it marks meaningful progress in a field where forecasting has historically lagged far behind that of other natural hazards like hurricanes or earthquakes.